Window & Door - August 2010

Residential Door Sales

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009F

2010F

2011F

2012F

2013F

Fig. 1–Source: Ducker Worldwide, FForecast

Interior Doors Entry Doors Storm Doors Patio Doors

end, with starts forecast to increase by 16 percent, led by single family starts. The rebound will continue into 2013. Ducker foresees total starts reaching 1.64 million that year, significantly up from 600,000 low of 2009, but still off the 2 million-plus levels of 2004 and 2005.

Although they are starting at historic lows, single family starts will more than double from 444,000 in 2009 to 1.16 million in 2013. Manufactured home shipments will see similar gains, while multifamily housing starts are predicted to triple over the same period, according to the AAMA/ WDMA report. Looking at the market regionally, Ducker notes that both single- and multi-family starts saw steep declines across the Northeast, Midwest, South and West. All four regions are expected to recover over the next few years also.

The remodeling and replacement market continued to slip downward in 2009, but Ducker foresees recovery in this segment as well. The study points to estimates and projections from the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, which foresees residential improvement expenditures increasing about 5 percent in 2010 to $121.5 billion. Looking out to 2013, this market is predicted to see a more robust rebound than new housing and surpass previously peak levels. Expenditures in 2010 are predicted to top $150 billion, compared to a previous 2006 peak of $143 billion.

WINDOW AND DOOR SHIPMENTS

Continued declines in both the new construction and remodeling/replacement markets produced another 20 percent decline in window and door shipments in 2009. As noted, the AAMA/ WDMA study foresees residential window demand increasing about 10 percent this year to 43 million units (Table 1). With steady improvement predicted, sales in the remodeling/replacement segment are projected to hit new highs by 2013. The new construction market will also grow, although Ducker does not foresee sales in that segment reaching the previous peak of 34 million units in 2005.

The study foresees continued shift in market share away from wood and aluminum windows to vinyl. With that shift, vinyl window sales overall are predicted to reach new highs by 2012. Ducker predicts vinyl window shipments will reach 45. 9 million units and enjoy a market share of about 67 percent in 2013. At the window market’s previous peak in 2005, vinyl window shipments reached 40. 6 million units, representing about 58 percent of total residential window sales.